Stehn and Phillips did consider one of Trump's proposals: requiring all employers to verify electronically that their personnel can work in the country legally. They estimated that this requirement would force about 2.5 million people to leave the country over two years and that the policy would reduce gross domestic product by one-half to three-quarters of a percentage point.
“Such a policy would have significantly adverse effects on the economy,” they wrote. Unemployment would decline at first as employers hired legal workers to replace their unauthorized workers, but many positions would have to remain vacant. As the economy's overall capacity to produce declined, unemployment would increase again, and so would prices.
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